235 AXPZ20 KNHC 070340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 UTC Tue Aug 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane John centered near 16.7N 108.6W at 07/0300 UTC or 380 nm S of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 107W and 114W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 18.0N 104.9W at 07/0300 UTC or 70 nm SSW of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. An elongated area of low pressure of 1006 mb resides over the eastern Pacific near 15N124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 123W and 127W. This system will continue to move W during the next couple of days. Strong winds in the vicinity of this system are expected to consolidate closer to the system center and increase to near gale force through Wed. This system has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough stretches from 09N78W to 07N90W to 07N91W to 13N101W. The ITCZ extends from 14N126W to 12N132W to 14N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is emerging from the coasts of Central America. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 127W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana which are expected to continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California Sur during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Winds will be the strongest tonight when they could reach near gale force. Gulf of California: Fresh S winds will pulse to strong speeds tonight and Tue night N of 29N. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere through Tue. Large southerly swell will cause seas for the Gulf waters S of 25.5N to build to between 8 and 14 ft Wed and Wed night as Hurricane John passes SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane John, Tropical Storm Ileana, and a tropical low pressure system which may affect the waters N of 10N during the next several days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at least several hundred miles away from Hurricane John through the end of this week, as it has becomes a very large system. Swell to 10 ft from Hurricane Hector over the discussion waters will diminish during the next 18 hours as the system moves farther west of 140W. Ridging from 32N131W to 19N115W will retract NW during the next few days as the 3 systems mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United States will produce northerly swell that will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W Tue afternoon through Wed morning, before the swell merges with that from Hurricane John. Cross equatorial mixed SE and SW swell of 8 ft that extends as far N as 7N between 112W and 120W will subside below 8 ft by Tue evening. $$ Latto