097 AXPZ20 KNHC 061602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1414 UTC Mon Aug 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector is centered W of the discussion area near 15.0N 141.9W at 06/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the discussion area within 60 nm of 15N139W. Hector is expected to continue tracking W to WNW through Tue. Winds and seas in the discussion area from 06N to 22N W of 135W will subside below advisory levels by Tue morning. as Hector heads farther into the central Pacific. Additional information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 16.3N 101.9W at 06/1500 UTC or 215 nm SE of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Tropical storm Ileana is expected to continue intensifying as it tracks NW to WNW along the coast of southern Mexico and could become a minimal hurricane by Tue morning. Ileana is forecast to be near 19.3N 107.2W Tue morning, and to be SW of Cabo San Lucas near 21.5N 111.6W Wed morning. The convection associated with Ileana has merged with the convection associated with John. Ileana is beginning to interact with Tropical Storm John and as a result is forecasted to begin weakening Tuesday afternoon and dissipate by Wed night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm John centered near 15.5N 107.9W at 06/1500 UTC or 460 nm SSE of the Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate and strong convection is present within an area bounded by 21N107W to 11N96W to 12N115W to 21N107W. John is undergoing rapid strengthening and this trend is predicted to continue during the next day or so. John is expected to become a hurricane later today, and reach major hurricane strength on Tuesday. John is moving toward the WNW and a faster NW motion is forecast for the next few days as John parallels the coast of southern Mexico and Baja California Sur. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional details. A broad area of low pressure resides over the eastern Pacific near 14N121.5W. The low measures 1005 mb and possesses scattered moderate and strong convection within 120 nm of a line from 14.5N117W to 12N129W. This system will continue to move WNW with strong to near gale force winds developing near the system center. This system retains a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough stretches from 08N78W to 08N86W to 10N96W, then resumes from 13N123W to 12N127W to 14N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 60 nm of 06N80W, within 75 NM of 11N92W and within 60 NM of a line from 11N130W to 12N134W to 10N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Storm John that are expected to continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Baja California Sur during the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through Tue. Large southerly swell up to 12 ft is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue as Tropical Storm John and Tropical Storm Ileana pass SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The swell will affect the entire entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 30 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area. Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector, Tropical Storms Ileana and John and a tropical low pressure system that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at least several hundred miles away from Tropical Storm John through this week, as it has become a large system. Significant effects from Hector for the discussion waters will diminish during the next 24 hours as the system moves farther west of 140W. Ridging from 32N137W to 21N115W will retract NW during the next few days as the 3 systems mentioned previously affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United States will produce northerly swell of 8 ft that will cross the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W Tue through Wed. $$ CAM