037 AXPZ20 KNHC 050356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0330 UTC Sun Aug 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through |0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.3N 134.7W at 05/0300 UTC or 1210 nm ESE of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Eleven-E centered near 13.0N 95.9W at 05/0300 UTC or 170 nm SSE of Puerto Angel Mexico moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 94W and 98W. Eleven-E will move to 13.4N 97.3W Sun morning, 14.2N 99.4W Sun evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.1N 101.5W Mon morning, 16.3N 103.8W Mon evening, and 19.0N 109.5W Tue evening. Eleven-E will dissipate late Wed. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Gale Warning: A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed at 13N104W and is moving NW at around 10 kt accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 10N to 16N between 100W and 106W. This low is forecast to move NW to near 14N104W on Sun and near 15N105W on Mon, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Even if the convection does not become organized, the pressure gradient will support minimal gale force winds beginning on Sun night. This low will continue NW across the far offshore waters between 104W and 118W through late next week. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N119W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to 17N between 116W and 122W. This low is forecast to reach near 13N119W on Sun, and near 15N122W on Mon with strong to near gale force winds developing within 210 nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis analyzed from 21N90W to 10N90W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Little to no convection is currently noted with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from Panama near 09N78W to 11N86W to 13N100W to 13N110W to 13N125W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E and the special feature lows, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 98W and 100W, and from 11N to 15N between 106W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical Depression Eleven-E and a developing tropical low that are expected to affect the offshore waters between 100W and 117W the next several days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until conditions associated with the developing tropical low reaches the area, around late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding Hurricane Hector and two developing tropical lows that may affect the waters N of the monsoon trough the next several days. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through Sun night, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract NW early next week as the tropical lows previously mentioned affect the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Latto