164 AXPZ20 KNHC 042145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 04 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.2N 133.7W at 04/2100 UTC or 1270 nm ese of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Depression Eleven-E near 12.4N 95.0W 1008 mb at 2 PM PDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm SE and 45 nm NW semicircles of center. Eleven-E will move to 12.9N 96.4W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.6N 98.3W Sun afternoon, 14.3N 100.2W Mon morning, 15.3N 102.4W Mon afternoon, and 18.3N 107.8W Tue afternoon. Eleven-E will change little in intensity as it moves to the 20.0N 114.0W on Wed afternoon, and merge with another tropical low on Thu. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details. Gale Warning: A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed at 13N103.5W and is moving NW at 10 kt accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 150 nm of the center. This low is forecast to move NW to near 13N104W on Sun and near 14.5N106W on Mon, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Even if the convection does not become organized, the pressure gradient will support minimal gale force winds within 120 nm over the NE semicircle beginning on Sun night. This low is expected to merge with Tropical Depression 11-E on Mon night into Tue with the merged low continuing NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 118W through late next week. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12.5N116.5W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 210 nm either side of a line from 09N117W to 15N120W. This low is forecast to reach near 13.5N119W on Sun, and near 15N122W on Mon with strong to near gale force winds developing within 300 nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 87W and is estimated to be moving W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is flaring intermittently within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave previously analyzed N of 07N along 101W lost identity in the surface low near 13N103.5W. A tropical wave previously analyzed from 06N115W to 18N115W lost identity in the surface low at 12.5N116.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W and extends W across Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then continues NW through Tropical Depression 11-E at 12.4N95W, and trough surface lows at 13N103.5W and 12.5N116.5W to 14.5N124W where the trough loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Hector. Aside from the convection associated with Hector and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm of 07N83W and within 240 nm either side of a line from 13N93W to 15N107W to 13N124W, and within 75 nm either side of a line from 08N133W to 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until conditions associated with the developing tropical low reaches the area, around late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract W early next week as the tropical low previously mentioned moves north-westward. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Nelson