841 AXPZ20 KNHC 041551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 04 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Hector centered near 14.2N 132.7W at 04/1500 UTC or 1390 nm WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of center. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details. Gale Warning: A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed at 12.5N 101.5W and is moving NW at 10 kt accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 210 nm of the center. This low is forecast to move NW to near 13N119W on Sun and near 14N121.5W on Mon, with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Even if the convection does not become organized, the pressure gradient will support minimal gale force winds within 120 nm over the NE semicircle beginning on Sun night, and persisting as the low continues NW across the far offshore waters between 100W and 118W through late next week. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N116W accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 180 nm either side of a line from 16.5N116.5W to 10N119W. This low is forecast to reach near 13N119W on Sun, and near 14N121.5W on Mon with strong to near gale force winds developing within 300nm of the center. This low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. A 1009 mb surface low is analyzed near 12N94W. Latest ship reports indicate that the pressure gradient is tightening and associated convection has begun to show signs of convective banding. The low is only about 400 nm E of the surface low at 12.5N101.5W. The National Hurricane Center has raised the possibility of tropical cyclone formation to the medium category. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 09N along 86W and is estimated to be moving W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is flaring intermittently within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed N of 07N along 101W and is estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt with the surface low along the wave at 12.5N101.5W. Expect this wave to lose identity as the low develops. A tropical wave extends from 06N115W to 18N115W and is moving W at 10 kt with a surface low along the wave at 12N116W. Expect this wave to lose identity as the low develops. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W and extends W across Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then continues NW through surface lows at 12N95W, 12.5N101.5W and 12N116W to 14.5N124W where the trough loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Hector. Aside from the convection associated with Hector and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of 06N82W and within 240 nm either side of a line from 12N89W to 15N110W to 13N121W, and within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N135W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters through Wed night. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly winds area expected. Light to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through early Thu. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with a tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of 108W until the developing tropical low reaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features Paragraph above. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features Paragraph above. A ridge will meander from 32N135W to 19N110W through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas. The ridge will retract W early next week as the tropical low previously mentioned moves northward. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several days. $$ Nelson