564 AXPZ20 KNHC 280359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 359 UTC Sat Jul 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Gilma centered near 15.0N 131.3W at 28/0300 UTC or 1420 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gilma continues to encounter strong NW shear, and scattered moderate convection is relegated to within 120 nm in the southeast quadrant of the depression. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 102W from 05N to 16N and is estimated to be moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is currently noted within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends along 120W from 08N to 16N moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted form 10N to 14N between 118W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 07N95W to 08N115W. Scattered convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 85W and 90W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep low pressure is analyzed north of the area over southwest United States along the Colorado River valley. This may be enhancing moderate to fresh southerly flow in the northern Gulf of California noted in earlier scatterometer data, east of the resident trough analyzed along the Baja California peninsula. Another trough extends from northern Baja California southward over the offshore waters to 24N120W, breaking up the surface ridge normal present from the north central Pacific through the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, high pressure north of the area along with local drainage effects will support moderate to fresh gap winds overnight into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, dissipating by mid morning, then repeating again Sat night. Elsewhere, the pattern is maintaining mostly gentle winds across the Mexican offshore areas with 3 to 5 ft seas with little change expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through early early next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough into early next week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The weakening remnant low of Tropical Depression Nine-E has moved west of the area, along with associated winds and seas. See the special features section for information on Tropical Depression Gilma and the tropical waves section for details on two tropical waves. Otherwise, ridging will persist north of 20N west of 120W through the period, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly 10N for the next several days. $$ Christensen