641 AXPZ20 KNHC 260915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A tropical wave from 07N to 17N along 120W is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. A surface low is forecast to develop along this wave near 13N124W within 12 to 24 hours, and the low may become a tropical cyclone in the next 2-3 days as it moves W-NW over open ocean. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... Tropical wave N of 07N along 90W moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 90W. A 1010 mb surface low analyzed near 11N133W is moving W at 15 kt accompanied by scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm of the low center. Scatterometer data indicates a well defined circulation center with highest winds in the northern quadrant. This low is forecast to move west and weaken as it approaches 140W during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N79W to 10N84W to 08N94W to 12N111W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N121W to 11N130W, then west of the low near 11N132W to 09N140W. Except as noted near the tropical waves and tropical low, isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm either side of the axis between 107W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad trough will meander N-NW to S-SE over the Baja Peninsula and the southern Gulf of California for the rest of the week. A NW-SE oriented surface ridge west of Baja Peninsula will support light to gentle breezes for the rest of the week accompanied by 3-6 ft seas, including the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 10N, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the trough axis. Fresh easterly flow is expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Friday afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 30N140W to near 20N114W with a weak trough analyzed N of the ridge from 35N130W to 31N137W. See the tropical waves section above for details on a series of waves and lows analyzed S of the ridge along the convergence zone axis. Long period northerly swell, in the form of 7-8 ft seas, is forecast N of 30N between 119W and 123W this upcoming weekend. $$ Mundell