637 AXPZ20 KNHC 142134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2134 UTC Sat Jul 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N103W to 17N102W and is moving W at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are observed from 07N to 18N between 101W and 109W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N113W to 18N113W and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 109W and 116W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N122W to 17N123W and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are observed from 09N to 14N between 121W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from 08N78W to low pres of 1012 mb near 10N103W to 09N109W. The ITCZ begins near 09N109W and continues to 08N113W, then resumes near 08N114W to 09N122W, then resumes again near 09N123W to 09N140W. Low pres of 1009 mb is just N of the ITCZ near 11N132W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection are from 10N to 16N between 126W and 139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 05N to 09N between 126W and 132W, and within 150 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis E of 95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, will continue through the middle of next week. A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N117W to 16N106W through the middle of next week. Light to gentle anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gulf of California: Light to gentle southerly flow is expected for the next 48 hours, except moderate southerly flow will develop along 30N this evening, and persist through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within about 90 nm WSW of the gulf waters this afternoon through Tue morning, then followed by brief strong nocturnal pulses during the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next few days with 4 to 6 ft seas. Extended model guidance is suggesting that long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive along 03.4S to the E of 93W on Thu night, and propagate N reaching the far offshore waters along 09N next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface low is analyzed near 11N132W. The pressure gradient between this low and high pres to the north will support fresh to locally strong trades across the tropics from roughly 12N to 20N, W of 128W, with seas to 11 ft. The low is expected to move W passing 11N140W on Sun night with little change in conditions through that time. Associated conditions should be w of 140W early Tue. Cross equatorial swell of 7 to 9 ft will spread N of the equator to about 09N between 93W and 135W starting Wed night through the end of next week. A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N140W to 23N117W to 16N106W through the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge, accompanied by 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Latto