599 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 08N to 18N along 105W/106W, moving W at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate showers are well E of wave axis.

A tropical wave is from 10N to 20N along 131W, moving W at 15 to 
20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers from 09N to 
11N between 130W and 136W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W across Panama to 09N97W 
to 07N105W to 11N121W to 11N129W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W 
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
south of the axis from 06N to 09N between 89W and 97W. A large 
area of scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 
121W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and 
northerly winds east of a trough in the Bay of Campeche will 
enhance the nocturnal drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Peak winds may reach 30 knots each late night/early morning from 
Thursday through Monday. 

A surface trough west of Baja California is supporting a weak 
pressure pattern N of 15N W of 96W across the offshore waters, 
promoting mainly gentle winds. The trough will meander between 
115W and 120W during the next few days, which will help maintain 
weak flow across the region into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E winds, with 8 to 10 
ft seas, are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Friday night and 
Saturday.

Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle southerly winds forecast 
south of the trough axis.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N131W, at the 
southern end of the tropical wave along 131W. The low will move 
slowly NW during the next 24 to 48 hours. Fresh NE to E winds 
and 8 foot seas may develop within 90-210 nm north of the low 
center during the next 12-24 hours. Expect NE to E 20 to 25 knot 
winds and sea heights reaching 8 feet, in general, within 200 nm 
to 300 nm to the north of the low center during the next few 
days.

$$
Mundell