000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N109W to 18N108W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 08N between 105W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 103W and 109W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N120W to 19N117W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 14N between 115W and 124W. .A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N132W to 18N129W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection from 05N to 13N between 127W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N99W. The ITCZ begins near 07N99W and extends to 08N107W, then resumes from 08N110W to 08N119W, then resumes again from 08N122W to 09N130W...then resumes west of the westernmost tropical wave near 09N132W to 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 03N E of 83W, from 04N to 7.5N between 86W and 93W, from 06N to 09N between 94W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between 124W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico along with northerly winds induced by a surface trough moving across the central Bay of Campeche are supporting a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. North to northeast winds are of a magnitude of 20 to 25 kt, which is increasing to 30 kt at night enhanced by the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas with fresh to strong winds are building to 9 ft and increase to 10 ft in the evening when the winds reach its peak intensity. The gap wind event is forecast to continue through Friday. However, since high pressure north of the area is expected to weaken after Wed, the peak of the winds is forecast to decrease to 25 kt. A surface trough prevails along the Gulf of California, while the remnants of Fabio are west of Baja California analyzed as a surface trough extending from 21N123W to 28N120W. These troughs support a weak pressure pattern and light to gentle variable winds off the Baja peninsula. The remnants of Fabio and a weak center of high pressure W of Baja California are expected to meander west of the offshores through Wed, which will help maintain the weak variable flow off Baja. A strong ridge building NW of the area will then extend a ridge axis just west of the offshores and wind will become N to NW. Gulf of California: Gentle to occasionally moderate southerly flow will continue for the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal offshore winds, with seas to 8 ft, will occur across and within 120 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through sunrise on Tue, resuming Thu night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 06N and 09N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge dominates the remainder waters N of 20N W of 124W while three tropical waves moves near the ITCZ enhancing convection. See the waves section for details. $$ Ramos/Sangster