000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending from the Bay of Campeche to southern Mexico offshore waters near 11N95w, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from N of 10N between 90W and 96W. A tropical wave is along 101W N of 06N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 95W and 103W. A tropical wave is from 05N to 15N along 116W moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N96W. The ITCZ begins near 09N97W and continues to 10N100W, then resumes near 10N102W to 08N110W to 08N115W...resuming W of a trpcl wave near 08N116W to 09N124W...resuming W of a surface trough from 08N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convectionis from 06N to 10N between 85W and 95W, and from 04N to 13N between 120W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge axis extends from high pressure NW of the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough in the Gulf of California supports light to gentle NW winds offshore Baja California, and variable light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. A new surface trough will move from the northern Gulf of California to just west of Baja California Norte later today. The trough will drift westward the next few days, eroding the ridge, and allowing for winds to become variable. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure north of the region nocturnal drainage flow will support fresh to strong northerly winds with seas up to 9 ft each night through Thu night of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal winds will continue downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 06N and 09N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial swell greater than 8 ft will reach the offshore waters of Ecuador and Colombia Sat and Sun mornings, respectively, and will linger across these locations through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of Fabio is centered near 24N133W, moving WNW. Scattered showers are occurring N of the low between 132W and 134W. Winds of 20 to 30 kt are within about 210 nm of the northern semicircle of the low with seas to 13 ft. These winds are being produced by the pressure gradient between the weakening low, and high pressure to the north of the region. A larger area of swell 8 ft to 10 ft covers the waters W of 129W. The strong winds will slowly decrease in areal coverage and intensity as the low continues to weaken and degenerates into a trough of low pressure by Sun. The associated area of swell will shrink in size this weekend, with seas diminishing below 8 ft over this region by early Mon. Strong NW winds north of the area along the California coast will cause 8 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell to reach the waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W from now through most of Mon, before retreating to along and N of 30N through midweek. Cross equatorial swell combined with wind waves from the Gulf of Papagayo will generate seas to 9 ft S of 12N and E of about 102W Sun and Mon. $$ Ramos