000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 20.2N 125.4W at 05/1500 UTC or 1010 miles W of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NW at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 21N between 123W and 126W. Fabio is expected to maintain a NW to WNW motion at a similar forward speed during the next several days. Additional weakening is likely, and Fabio is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N105W TO 15N104W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 100W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N100W to 07N111W. The ITCZ begins near 11N126W and continues along 10N133W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 83W and 100W. See special features and tropical waves sections for other areas of convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Storm Fabio. Fabio continues to track WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Seas of 7 to 10 ft W of the Baja Peninsula will subside to between 5 and 7 ft by Fri evening as Fabio continues weakening and tracking WNW. A surface ridge gradually building in between Fabio and the Baja Peninsula will then support light to moderate NW to N winds through Sat night. A weak surface trough developing along 118W will support light and variable winds over the pacific forecast zones over the weekend through early next week. Gulf of California: A surface trough developing over the peninsula will support light to gentle variable winds over the Gulf through early next week, except that moderate winds will develop Sat and Mon as the trough over the peninsula sharpens. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds prevail this morning with seas to 9 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through the middle of next week. This gap wind event is expected to peak late Fri night when winds reach near gale force and seas build to around 10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night and continuing through early next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of mixed swell generated by Fabio will maintain a large area of seas 8 ft or higher for the waters N of 10N and W of 120W today. This area of 8 ft seas is expected to shrink and shift to the W of a line from 30N130W to 10N138W by Sun morning as Fabio weakens and tracks WNW to NW. Strong NW winds blowing along the California coast will cause swell to propagate into the waters W of Baja California Norte as far S as 27N from late Fri night through Sun. $$ Ramos