000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042209 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 17.9N 121.6W at 04/2100 UTC or 830 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm north semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 22N between 116W and 125W. Additional weakening is forecast, and Fabio is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Continued weakening is expected thereafter, and Fabio will likely degenerate into a remnant low by early this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N to 18N along 104W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between 95W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N100W to 07N111W ...then resumes from 12N127W to 09N136W to low pres 1009 mb near 09N137W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 210 nm NE quadrant of low. See special features and tropical waves sections for other areas of convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fabio continues to track WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Swell of 8 to 10 ft associated with Fabio is over Baja offshores zones and will prevail mainly west of 113W through Thu afternoon. A weak surface ridge will then support light to moderate northerly winds through Fri night. Light and variable winds are expected over the weekend through early next week. Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds are expected through early next week, except for southerly moderate winds developing Sat and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume tonight with seas building to 9 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo starting Fri night and continuing through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A remnant trough is crossing 140W from 20N to 25N. Strong N to NE winds are from 23N to 25N west of 136W. Seas are to 10 ft in N swell. These conditions will move west of the area tonight as Fabio continues to track WNW. $$ Ramos