000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 15.1N 114.5W at 03/0900 UTC or 530 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands within 480 nm of center except 270 nm over the northwest quadrant. Fabio will strengthen to 90 kt gusts 110 kt near 15.8N 116.4W this afternoon, strengthen to 100 kt gusts to 120 kt near 16.9N 118.9W tonight, then weaken to 80 kt gusts to 100 kt reaching near 18.2N 121.5W on Wed afternoon, 75 kt gusts to 90 kt near 19.7N 123.7W on Wed night and then continue to move further west of the area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 07N along 100W, and is moving west at 12 kt. Isolated moderate and strong convection is flaring intermittently within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 11N75W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 08N94W and then through a tropical wave along 100W to 12N104W where it lose identity. The monsoon trough resumes west of Fabio at 12N118W and continues west-southwest to beyond 09N140W. Except as previously described near Fabio isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within area bounded by 20N104W to 12N91W to 03N92W to 05N108w to 20N104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Cyclone Fabio. Fresh to locally strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 150 nm of offshore zones 023 and 015 today with the conditions shifting west of zone 015 early Wed. Associated swells of 8 to 16 ft seaward of 60 nm will shift north across the waters west of Baja during mid week and are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. Otherwise, a northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Fri. Moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Thu increasing to a fresh northwest breeze on Thu night and Fri. Gulf of California: Moderate southerly flow expected today becoming a gentle southerly breeze on Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 22N131W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Strong northeast winds are forecast within 210 nm north of the center today. The low is forecast to weaken to an open trough late tonight. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas have spread southwest into the area as far south as 25N west of 137W. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late tonight. A weak trough will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Nelson