000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012215 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 108.4W 1000 MB AT 2100 UTC, OR ABOUT 460 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTRAL CORE OF FABIO TODAY, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE A LONG ARCHING BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 90 TO 450 NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT, AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO TODAY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST, FROM ACAPULCO TO THE COAST OF MICHOACAN. FABIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WNW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, REACHING HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE TUESDAY. IN FACT, COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FABIO COULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND HIGH SEAS WILL BRUSH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FROM OFFSHORE OF ACAPULCO TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA IS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ABOUT 85W/86W AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 05N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION, MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 08.5N96W TO 12N100W, WHERE IT BREAKS EAST OF FABIO, THEN RESUMES FROM 13N116W TO 13.5N120W TO 10.5N133W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W, N OF 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W, FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W, AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM FABIO. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 90 NM OF THE COAST FOR OFFSHORE ZONES 027 AND 025 THIS EVENING, THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 210 NM OF ZONE 023 TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF ZONE 015 ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 8-10 FT THIS EVENING TO 12-18 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF ZONE 015 LATE MON AS FABIO STRENGTHENS TO A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THIS RIDGE, WITH MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MON, ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEABREEZES TO DOMINATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: VARIABLE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STRONG NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL RESUME ON THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WITHIN 200 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PEAKING AROUND 25 KT EACH NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING BETWEEN 08N AND 10N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 30N124W TO BEYOND 26N115W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND 6 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY 7 TO 9 FT SEAS, WILL REACH ALONG 30N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TO ALONG 28N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W BY MON MORNING, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT, THEN PUSH FURTHER SOUTH TO 26N BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT. THIS TO OCCUR TO THE NW OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 30N EARLY THIS WEEK. $$ STRIPLING