000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fabio near 11.6N 106.4W 1003 mb at 2 AM PDT moving W NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm either side of a line from 16N103W to 10N113W. Fabio will move to 12.0N 108.1W this afternoon, 12.7N 110.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 112.5W Mon afternoon, 14.0N 114.6W Tue morning, and 15.5N 119.5W Wed morning. Fabio will begin to weaken as it moves to the 18.0N 124.5W early Thu, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 129.5W early Fri. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Emilia near 18.9N 122.1W 1006 mb at 2 AM PDT moving W NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm over the southwest quadrant. Emilia will become a remnant low and move to 19.4N 123.8W this afternoon, 20.1N 126.0W Mon morning, 20.8N 128.3W Mon afternoon, 21.3N 130.4W Tue morning, and 21.5N 135.5W Wed morning. Emilia will dissipate early Thu. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 05N along 95W, and is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed south of 10N within 240 nm west of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends northwest across off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W and across the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W then continues west through a tropical wave along 95W to 10N101W where it loses identity. The monsoon trough resumes southwest of T.D. Emilia at 14N125W and continues southwest 09N132W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues southwest to beyond 07N140W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within an area bounded by 17N102W to 09N78W to 03N78W to 08N106W to 17N102W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Storm Fabio near 11.3N 105.4W. Fresh to strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 120 nm of offshore zones 027 and 025 today then spreading northwest across the waters beyond 210 nm of zone 023 tonight, and across the far offshore waters of zone 015 on Mon night into Tue. A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu. Light to occasionally moderate winds are expected around this ridge. Gulf of California: Moderate south to southwest winds are forecast along 30N through late this morning. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere across the gulf waters through Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Extended guidance is suggesting that strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for details on weakening Tropical Depression Emilia and intensifying Tropical Storm Fabio. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 27N119W. Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas, are expected to continue across the area through this afternoon. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach along 30N between 130W and 140W tonight. These conditions will propagate south to along 25N between 135W and 140W on Mon night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft forecast west of a line from 32N124W to 24N140W in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the discussion area north of 30N early this week. $$ Nelson