000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010354 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven-E is centered near 11.3N 105.4W, or about 535 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, with estimated pressure of 1005 mb at 8 PM PDT, moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 240 nm either side of a line from 16N101W to 09N111W. Seven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.7N 107.1W on Sun morning, move to 12.4N 109.2W Sun evening, 13.1N 111.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.7N 113.4W Mon evening, and 15.4N 117.9W Tue evening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Emilia centered near 18.4N 121.1W, or about 785 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, with an estimated pressure of 1005 mb at 8 PM PDT moving W NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm over the south quadrant. Emilia will become a remnant low and move to 18.8N 122.8W Sun morning, 19.5N 125.0W Sun evening, 20.2N 127.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 129.3W Mon evening, and 21.2N 134.0W Tue evening. Emilia will dissipate late Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 08N along 92W, and is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed south of 10N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends northwest across off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W and across the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W then continuing west through a tropical wave along 92W to 11N100W where it loses identity. The monsoon trough resumes southwest of Emilia at 13N123W and continues southwest 08N134W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues southwest to beyond 07N140W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within an area bounded by 15N97W to 07N78W to 05N106W to 15N97W, and within 120 nm either side of a line from 13N117W to 10N125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical depression 7-E near 11.3N 105.4W. Fresh to strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 90 nm of offshore zones 027 and 025 early Sun spreading northwest across the waters beyond 180 nm of zone 023 late Sun and zone 015 early next week. f A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu. Light to occasionally moderate winds are expected around this ridge. Gulf of California: Moderate south to southwest winds are forecast along 30N through late Sun morning. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere across the gulf waters through Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Extended guidance is suggest brief strong northerly winds late Wed and Thu nights. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for details on Tropical Depression Emilia and Tropical depression 7-E. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 27N119W. Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas, are expected to continue across the area through late Sun. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach along 30N between 130W and 140W on Sun night. These conditions will propagate south to along 25N between 135W and 140W on Mon night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft forecast west of a line from 32N124W to 24N140W, in the wake of a weak cold front passing through the discussion area north of 30N early in the week. $$ Nelson