000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302225 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 2100 UTC, THE LARGE SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E, LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 104.4W, OR ABOUT 425 NM SSW OF ZIHUATENEJO, MEXICO, MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW TODAY, AND WAS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 300 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 240 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. T.D. SEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH STRONG TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE THE AREA FROM ACAPULCO TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING GALE. AT 2100 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED AT 18.0N 120.0W, OR ABOUT 640 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. EMILIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED AS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL, AND ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WNW AND WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WAVE BETWEEN 86W AND 95W, AND MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 08.5N90W TO LOW PRES 11N103W TO 14N108W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST FROM 11NN124W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OR BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME, WHILE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES. GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DOMINATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MON BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LATE WED NIGHT. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE SPREAD FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 95W THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE SEAS REMAIN 6-8 FT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AND WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING BETWEEN 08N AND 10N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA AND NEWLY CLASSIFIED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 30N136W TO NEAR 25N114W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS, AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TO THE WEST OF 120W AND NORTH OF 20N THROUGH LATE SUN. MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N AND TO THE WEST OF EMILIA, AND WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MON AND TUE, EXTENDING JUST TO THE SW OF 30N AND 125W. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE GRADUALLY FRESHENING WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND NORTH OF 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 10 FT. $$ STRIPLING