000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 UTC Thu Jun 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 13.8N 111.3W at 28/0900 UTC or 550 nm S of the Southern Tip of Baja California moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found elsewhere within 90 nm of a line from 12N114W to 18N110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 09N to 16N between 113W and 119W. Slow strengthening is forecast for this system during the next 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thu. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N95W to 19N95W. A surface low has just formed along the axis of the wave near 10N to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 60 nm of a line from 05N92W to 12N99W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico over the weekend. This system possesses a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.The system will move WNW and bring fresh to strong winds toward the offshore waters adjacent to the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca Fri and then the offshore waters adjacent to Guerrero Mexico on Sat. Seas associated with this system will then affect the offshore waters of Manzanillo on Sun. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N75W to low pres 1010 mb near 07N76W to 06N80W to 10N89W to 10N93W. The ITCZ continues from 10N124W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 10N E of 80W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for further details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Emilia and the developing system centered S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure centered well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 25N. The pressure gradient over the northern Gulf of California will tighten tonight and Fri as the ridge shifts E and low pres deepens over the Colorado River Valley, leading to the development of fresh to possibly strong winds over the Gulf of California N of 29N on Fri. Seas over this portion of the Gulf will range between 3 to 6 ft during this time. Strong winds north of the region supported by the strengthening ridge will bring NW swell of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California briefly Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Another tropical wave has an axis extending N from 06N81W into the NW Caribbean near 19N81W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of a line from 06N80W to 10N87W. As this system gradually consolidates and moves W to WNW, it could affect the waters S of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala with strong winds Mon through Tue. Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will occur over the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Newly formed low pressure centered S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10N95W will gradually develop during the next several days. The pressure gradient on the NE side of this system will eventually boost winds to between strong and near gale force W of 90W for the offshore zones of Guatemala and El Salvador. This low will head W and carry its wind field with it by Sat. Otherwise, the monsoon trough will meander in the vicinity of 10N during the next several days, with moderate winds generally prevailing on both sides of the trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for further details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Emilia and the developing system located to the S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure centered well NW of the area has a ridge axis extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. S of 20N and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5 to 7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally observed N of 20N W of 120W with seas running between 6 and 9 ft primarily in N to NE swell. Combined seas for the waters N of 20N will subside tonight as the underlying swell diminishes. Seas near the Equator W of 110W will run between 7 and 8 feet through Sat as mixed SE and SW swell maintain seas in this area. $$ CAM