000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2145 UTC Tue Jun 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low located near 10N102W is generating scattered moderate to strong convection and tstms from 07N to 13N between 99W and 107W. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days as it moves west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this low will produce fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft within a couple hundred nm of the center over the next couple of days. See the latest tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N102W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N109W, then resumes near 17N122W and continues to 11N129W. The ITCZ begins near 11N129W and continues to 10N135W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 09N137W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the special feature low, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 15N E of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 128W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 20N. The high will slowly build westward over the next few days. This will bring a gradual increase in NW flow offshore Baja California Norte through the end of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf of California will freshen late this week as surface troughing strengthens over the region, and the E Pacific high builds westward. Seas generally between 5-7 ft will prevail the next several days across the offshore waters N of 20N. A 1008 mb low located near 10N102W is generating fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the region between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 105N, S of 20N. Seas greater than 8 ft associated with this system are expected to spread across the offshore waters of Acapulco and Manzanillo Wed and Thu. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave is expected to spawn a low south of the Tehuantepec region by early Fri with fresh to strong winds, possibly increasing to near gale force winds later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshore waters of Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Thu north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region at night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough axis. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the offshore waters of Nicaragua by Thu night. As the low moves west, it will possibly bring fresh to strong easterly winds with associated seas to the offshore zone of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri. The low will then take a west- northwest track, shifting these conditions to the offshore waters of southern and southwest Mexico Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Daniel is centered near 20N121W. No significant convection is noted. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the NW of the region is likely supporting strong NW to N winds within about 90 nm of the NW semicircle of the low, with associated seas to 9 ft. This system will gradually degenerate into a trough over the next couple of days. High pressure well northwest of the area has a ridge that extends SE to near 120W. S of 20N and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally N of 20N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft, aided by both a SE and a NW swell component. These conditions over the waters N of 20N will improve beginning Wed night as the swell diminishes. SW cross equatorial swell to 8 ft will briefly cross the equator to about 05N between 120W and 140W tonight through Wed. $$ Latto