000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261008 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 26 2018 Corrected to add potential tropical cyclone info to special features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 0900 UTC Tropical Depression Daniel was located near 19.9N 119.3W or about 550 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 7 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is observed. Daniel is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system later this morning, and dissipate by Thursday. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for further details. A 1008 mb low located near 9N99W is generating scattered moderate to strong convection and tstms from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the region of Guerrero. This low, which has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days, is forecast to move west-northwest bringing strong to near gale- force southeasterly winds from southern Mexico to the offshore waters of Jalisco today through Thu. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 9.7N99.8W to a 1011 mb low near 14N107W, then resumes near 17N121W and continues to 13N125W. The ITCZ begins near 13N125W and continues to 12N133W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 03N between 77W and 81W, from 04N to 09N between 90W and 96W and from 04N to 15N between 96W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the region in part due to a surface trough present along the Gulf of California. This is supporting light and variable winds across the offshore waters, except for 10-15 kt within 90 nm of the Baja coast. Tropical Depression Daniel located about 550 nm W-SW of the southern tip of Baja California continues to move WNW and away from the region. This will allow a high pressure located north of the area to build modestly SE into the region and bring a return to NW wind flow across the offshore waters. Winds are expected to become moderate off northern and central Baja starting Wed night and continuing through early Fri due to tightening of the pressure gradient. A 1008 mb low located near 9N99W is generating scattered moderate to strong convection and tstms from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the region of Guerrero. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave will spawn a low south of Tehuantepec early Fri with fresh to strong winds increasing to near gale force winds later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshores of Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. Otherwise, gentle southerly winds in the Gulf of California are generally producing seas of 3 ft or less. A weak pressure pattern and variable winds will prevail through early Wed, then southerly winds will increase to moderate through early Sat. Fresh to strong southerly wind will develop north of 29N Thu evening continuing through Sat night. Seas are expected to range between 5-7 ft during that period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh to locally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop in the offshore waters of Nicaragua early on Thu. As the low move west on Thu evening, it will bring fresh to strong easterly winds with associated seas to the offshore zone of El Salvador and Guatemala. The low will then take a west-northwest track, shifting these conditions to the offshore waters of southern and southwest Mexico Fri and Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 120W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is supporting fresh NE winds N of 27N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft. These conditions in the north-central and northwest waters will gradually diminish through Wed night. $$ Ramos