000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical depression five formed over the open waters of the East Pacific. As of 0300 UTC the center of the depression is located near 14.3N 115.7W or about 600 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north at 8 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of southwest semicircle. Depression five is expected to intensify to a tropical storm on Sunday. For further details see the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N93W to low pressure near 13N107W 1010 mb to low pressure near 14N115W 1007 mb to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 12N139W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the coast of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of southern coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between 86W and 100W, N of 10N between 97W and 108W, from 08N to 15N between 110W and 120W, and from 01N to 10N between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW light to gentle winds are across the offshore waters west of Baja California. Winds will remain variable 10 kt or less through the weekend offshore and be dominated by land and sea breezes near the coast. Southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California are 20-25 kt to the north of 29N, while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas in the region of strongest winds are up to 7 ft while 2-4 ft seas are south of 29N. Winds and seas will continue to subside tonight through Sunday. Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell continues to gradually build across the regional waters and will affect the waters from central Baja California to Central America through Monday. 5 to 7 ft seas off of Southern Mexico will build to 6-8 ft by Sun morning before slowly subsiding late Sun night and Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell has moved into the regional waters and will gradually build across southern forecast waters through Sun, and peak near t 7- 9 ft tonight, then will gradually subside Sun through Mon. A tropical wave across Central America along about 88W will continue westward through Mon and maintain active convection in the region during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. To the S and SW of the ridge just N of the ITCZ, moderate NE to E winds prevail west of 126W with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift NW and reorganize, while a weak trough offshore of Baja California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W, producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7- 10 ft across the northern waters. Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is propagating into the northern waters today, and will build seas modestly to 8 ft north of 29N between 123W and 127W by Sun morning. The cross-equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 120W tonight, and will maintain seas 5-7 ft there through Mon. A 1010 mb low pressure is near 14N107W generating scattered moderate to strong convection. See monsoon convection section above for details. Global models indicate that this low will linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to generate active convection. $$ Ramos