000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221634 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 101W/102W is moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is presently moving through a moist and unstable environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is located from 06.5N to 14N between 99W and 108W. Global models show an area of low pressure develop from this wave along 114W this weekend. This area will be monitored for potential tropical cyclone development SW of Mexico early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 08.5N79W TO 13.5N114W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N116W TO 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W TO 07N127W TO 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 78W and 118W, and within 240 nm N and 210 nm S of ITCZ west of 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds are expected to prevail across the waters west of Baja California through early Sat before beginning to gradually diminish through the weekend, as a broad surface trough extending the full length of the peninsula shifts slowly westward across the Pacific waters. Winds west of the peninsula will become variable less than 15 kt through the weekend. Meanwhile, southerly winds will increase east of the trough axis inside the Gulf of California this weekend, becoming fresh to strong southeasterly N of 28N Sat afternoon, continuing into early Sun morning. Seas in the northern Gulf of California will build to 6-9 ft by Sat afternoon and evening, then subside Sun along with a decrease in surface winds. Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off Southern Mexico this afternoon, and build seas to 5-6 ft tonight, and reach 7-8 ft by Sun morning. Sea will then begin to subside Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 11N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will spread across southern forecast waters today, with seas building to 5-6 ft this afternoon, and reaching 6-8 ft Sat afternoon through Sun, before gradually subsiding Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well north of the area near 36N135W extends a modest ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail S of 27N and west of 125W, where seas area generally 6 to 8 ft, while light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Tradewinds will diminish slightly across western portions of the area this afternoon through Sat as a low pressure center along the ITCZ near 08.5N142W shifts well west of the area. A pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters with seas building to 6 to 9 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W early Sat. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 6 to 9 ft south of 10N and west of 90W late tonight. Low pressure centered near 13N116W is embedded along the monsoon trough with an estimated pressure of 1011 mb. Model guidance shows this low emerging from the trough and drifting northward with a gradual increase in intensity through the weekend. $$ Stripling