000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 97W, moving slowly westward. 
Convection associated with this wave is occurring mainly 
south of the monsoon trough.

The southern portion of a tropical wave moving across the 
western Caribbean and Central America is analyzed across the 
eastern Pacific along 89W, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered to 
locally numerous convection associated with this wave is 
described below and has shifted westward with and ahead of the 
wave overnight, from south of Costa Rica and Nicaragua to 
currently between 88W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75W TO 09N90W TO 10.5N97W, 
where it break , then resumes from 13.5N103W TO 07N120W. The 
ITCZ then continues from 07N120W TO 06N125W TO 09N135W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 
11N east of 86W to the coast of Colombia, within 240 nm SE of 
the trough between 103W and 116W, and within 120 nm either side 
of the ITCZ between 127W and 134W. Scattered to numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11.5N between 
88W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds occurring across the 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula will diminish 
slightly this morning through early afternoon, with gentle to 
moderate winds prevailing the remainder of the week into the 
first half of the weekend. Seas in the 5-7 ft range offshore of 
the Baja peninsula will subside to 4-6 ft by Thursday. A new 
pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California Norte Thu through Fri, and build seas to near 8 ft 
across the outer waters through Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail over 
the open waters the next several days. Cross equatorial 
southerly swell will propagate into the waters off Southern 
Mexico by the end of the week, which will build seas to near 7 
ft by Saturday. Very active convection associated with a 
tropical wave along 89W will shift westward and pass south of 
the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late today and tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will meander along 10N through midweek before 
slowly lifting northward. Light to gentle winds will prevail N 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
prevailing S of the monsoon trough. A pulse of long period SW 
swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with 
combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of the 
Galapagos Islands. The swell will continue to spread across the 
southern forecast waters, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft S of 
08N by Saturday night.

Very active convection associated with a tropical wave along 89W 
described above will continue to shift westward across the 
waters along and west of the wave axis through tonight.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 35N135W extends a modest 
ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic wind flow prevails over the waters north of 20N, 
while gentle to moderate trades prevail S of 20N and west of 
120W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas N of 20N will subside 
to 4-6 ft by Wednesday evening. A fresh pulse of northerly swell 
will propagate into the northern waters Thursday, with seas 
building to 6-8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W Friday. 
Southerly swell will cross the equator on Wed, building seas to 
6-9 ft south of 10N and west of 90W Friday.

$$
Stripling