000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Fri Jun 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Bud centered near 25.3N 110.0W at 15/1500 UTC or 90 nm ESE of Loreto Mexico moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm north semicircle of Bud. Bud will continue to weaken and move inland over Mexico tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. Refer to the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts. Tropical Depression Four-E centered near 15.8N 99.7W at 15/1500 UTC or 70 nm WSW of Punta Maldonado Mexico moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm SE and 60 nm NW semicircles. The system is forecast to intensify to tropical storm strength tonight, then move inland over southern Mexico Saturday. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected over the near shore and offshore waters of southern Mexico associated to this system. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. Refer to the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W to 11N93W. It resumes from 12N118W to 08.5N128W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 14N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 15N between 105W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Depression Bud, and Tropical Depression Four-E. Outside the influence of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Aletta are located near 16N118W and continue to weaken. A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevails across much of the forecast waters, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Northerly swell will propagate into the far northern waters north of 29N between 123W and 129W. Additional northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Saturday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, resulting in an area of seas in the 7 to 9 foot range south of 08N between 100W and 120W. $$ AL