000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bud is near 21.7N 109.6W at 14/1500 UTC or 70 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico, moving NNW 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 20N to 24N between 107W and 112W. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California and the Gulf of California through Friday. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/ MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. A disorganized area of low pressure is near 13.5N100W, in the monsoon trough. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 97W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 08N78W, to 08N88W, 14N97W, 14N108W, to 06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to 08N134W, beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 09N from 80W eastward, from 06N to 09N between 85W and 90W, from 09N to 11N between 95W and 97W, and from 12N to 15N between 97W and 103W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 16N from 107W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Bud, and a developing low pressure center that is to the SSW of Acapulco. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the NW of the remnant low pressure of Aletta, from 12N northward from 123W westward. A broad surface trough spans Baja California. The combination of the ridge, and the Baja trough, will support moderate NW winds in the waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through tonight. NW swell originating from north of the area supports 7-8 ft seas W of northern Baja California, merged and reinforced by swell generated by the remnant low Aletta and Tropical Storm Bud, creating a confused state of swell direction W of Baja California Sur today. Mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is lifting northward, slowly, across the forecast waters, and will be near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Aletta near 16N120W continues to weaken. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward from 123W westward. Little change is expected during the next several days. Fresh trade winds will continue across the tropics, south of the ridge, through Saturday. Northerly swell generated north of 30N is combining with swell generated from Aletta and Bud, in order to produce seas of 7 to 9 feet in the northern forecast waters. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 130W, resulting in area of 8 ft seas in equatorial waters through Saturday. $$ mt