000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140403
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bud centered near 20.5N 109.1W at 0300 UTC about 
150 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 6 kt. Minimum central 
pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts 
to 55 kt. Deep convection associated with this system continues 
to rapidly decrease. Scattered moderate convection is found in a 
convective band between 90-120 nm in the NE semicircle. Bud will 
continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California 
and the Gulf of California through Fri. A tropical storm warning 
remains in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San 
Lucas. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under 
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas 
Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest 
information on this system.

A disorganized area low pressure centered near 12N99W is 
embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is evident from 10N to 14N between 99W and 
104W. NHC estimates there is a medium chance of this system 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 13N95W to low pres 
1009 mb centered near 12N99W to 12N103W, then resumes south of 
TS Bud near 14N109W to 06N131W. The ITCZ continues from 06N131W 
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present 
within 270 nm south of the trough axis between 92W and 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See above in special features section for more on Tropical Storm 
Bud and a developing low pressure SSW of Acapulco. Elsewhere, a 
broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support 
moderate NW winds over the waters N of 25N and west of Baja 
Peninsula through Thu night. A pulse of NW swell maintains 8 ft 
seas W of northern Baja California, merged with swell generated 
earlier by Aletta, and additional swell generated by Bud will 
propagate NW and add to the confused state of swell directions W 
of Baja California Sur through Thu.

Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of
Acapulco through the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is slowly lifting north across the forecast 
waters, and will be near 12N during the next couple of days. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough 
while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the 
monsoon through the week. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-tropical remnant low Aletta centered near 16N119W continues 
to weaken. A broad ridge prevails over the NW forecast waters N 
of 15N and W of 120W. Little change is expected the next several 
days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics south of the 
ridge through Saturday. 

Northerly swell generated north of 30N is combining with swell 
generated from Aletta and Bud to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft over 
the northern forecast waters. Long period cross-equatorial SW 
swell is propagating N of the equator E of 130W, resulting in an 
area of 8ft seas in equatorial waters through Sat.

$$
Mundell