000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1940 UTC Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 18.4N 108.4W at 12/2100 UTC or 265 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Convection associated with Bud has begun to decrease in intensity. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present in the SE semicircle within 90 nm, in the NW semicircle within 60 nm and within an area bounded by 20N105W to 17N101W to 10N103W to 12N112W to 16N106W to 20N105W. The weakening trend is expected to accelerate through Thursday as Bud weakens into a tropical storm and approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud will pass over Baja California Sur Thu through Fri, then cross the Gulf of California as a tropical depression and enter the Mexican state of Sonora Fri night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 09N79W to 09N81W to 11N88W to low pres 1010 mb near 10N95W to 11N97W. The monsoon trough resumes from 11N113W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 11N between 84W and 100W and within 90 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 113W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in the special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate winds west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. A pulse of NW swell continues to maintain seas greater than 8 ft W of northern Baja California. This batch of swell has merged with swell generated earlier this weekend by Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating a larger area of confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through tonight. Additional swell greater than 8 ft generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to the confused seas W of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will slowly lift N across the forecast waters from near 10N to near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta remains centered near 16N119W and remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to slowly weaken. Peak winds of 25 kt and associated seas of 10 ft will slowly diminish during the next couple of days. The remnant low will slowly drift E during the next few days while gradually degenerating into a surface trough. A surface ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated by strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 11 ft over the forecast waters N of 05N between 100W and 130W. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is causing seas along and just N of the equator E of 120W to build to near 8 ft while also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue to maintain seas in this area the next day or so. By Wed, the SW swell will diminish N of 05N which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over that region. The SE and SW swell crossing the equator will maintain seas near 8 ft along and just N of the Equator E of 135W for the next several days. $$ CAM