000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1436 UTC Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 16.7N 106.8W at 11/1500 UTC or 230 nm SSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within an area bounded by 14N97W to 09N106W to 12N114W to 18N110W to 20N106W to 14N97W. Bud will continue moving NW today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north- northwest is expected on Tuesday, and this general motion should continue into mid week. On this forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11N79W to 09N88W to 09N96W. The monsoon trough resumes from 10N122W to 06N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N between 92W and 97W and within 30 nm either side of a line from 10N114W to 06N122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Aletta is centered near 16.8N 117.8W at 11/1500 UTC or 580 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Aletta is steadily weakening again, and the latest forecast has Aletta has lost all of its deep convection and will degenerate into a remnant low later today. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. See above for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through today. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell has merged with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week. The confused seas will be reinforced by swell generated by Hurricane Bud. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through today, then will become moderate through mid week. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will slowly shift westward the next couple of days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W through tonight. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 11 ft over almost all of the forecast waters between 90W and 130W. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is causing seas along the equator E of 115W to build to 8 ft while also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 90W through early this week. By midweek, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. $$ CAM