000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110349 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0345 UTC Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta centered near 16.8N 116.2W at 11/0300 UTC or 510 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm northwest semicircle. Aletta is slowly weakening, and the latest forecast has Aletta weakening to a tropical depression by Monday evening. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. Hurricane Bud centered near 16.0N 104.9W at 11/0300 UTC or 270 nm S of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 100W and 111W. Bud will continue to intensify through Monday as it moves on a northwestward track. The system is then forecast to start a weakening trend Tuesday. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N95W. It resumes from 10N119W to 07N136W. The ITCZ extends from 07N136W to beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15N E of 97W, and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 115W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above for more on Tropical Storm Aletta and Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Monday. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell has merged with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week. The confused seas will be reinforced by swell generated by Hurricane Bud. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday, then will become moderate through mid week. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will slowly shift westward the next couple of days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W through Monday night. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California, combined with swell generated from Aletta is producing seas to 11 ft over the waters N of Aletta, and E of 130W. Long period cross- equatorial SW swell is also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 95W through early this week. By midweek, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. $$ Latto