000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1936 UTC Sun Jun 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta centered near 16.6N 115.7W at 2100 UTC or 500 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm northwest semicircle. Aletta continues to weaken, and the latest forecast has Aletta weakening to a tropical depression on Monday. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. Recently upgraded Hurricane Bud centered near 15.3N 104.2W at 2100 UTC or 320 nm SSE of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N to 19N between 99W and 108W. Bud will continue to intensify through Tuesday as it moves on a northwestward track. The system is then forecast to start a weakening trend. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N96W. It resumes from 11N117W to 07N130W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 09N E of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 150 nm of the monsoon trough between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 117W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above for more on Tropical Storm Aletta and Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell has merged with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week. The confused seas will be reinforced by swell generated by Hurricane Bud. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday, then will become moderate through mid week. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will slowly shift westward the next couple of days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California, combined with swell generated from Aletta is producing seas to 11 ft over the waters N of Aletta, and E of 130W. Long period cross- equatorial SW swell is also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 95W through early this week. By midweek, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. $$ AL