000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1436 UTC Sun Jun 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta centered near 16.5N 115.1W at 1500 UTC or 480 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north semicircle. Aletta continues to weaken rapidly with the combination of strong vertical shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment. The latest forecast has Aletta weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. Tropical Storm Bud centered near 14.7N 103.5W at 1500 UTC or 360 nm SSE of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 99W and 108W. Bud will continue to intensify as it moves on a northwestward track. The system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity tonight. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N96W. It resumes from 10N117W to 07.5N124W to 07.5N130W to 06.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N135W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 07N E of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 30 nm south and 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 117W and 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above for more on Tropical Storm Aletta and Tropical Storm Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell will merge with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week, becoming reinforced by swell generated by Tropical Storm Bud. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday, then will become moderate through mid week. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will slowly shift westward the next couple of days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W. Northerly swell from strong northerly winds along the coast of California continues to support seas to 9 ft over the waters N of Aletta, and E of 130W. This swell will combine with swell generated from Tropical Storm Aletta through tonight. Long period cross- equatorial SW swell is also propagating across the forecast waters. New swell is being generated by Tropical Storm Bud. The swells from these systems will combine the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 95W through early this week. By midweek, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. $$ AL