000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Elongated low pressure located about 305 nm SSW of Manzanillo Mexico has become better organized this evening, and is now Tropical Depression Two-E, located near 14.1N 105.7W, moving NW or 305 deg at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 1005 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows that the overall cloud pattern has become a well defined comma shape with the scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms noted within 120 nm NE and 210 nm SW semicircles. A west-northwestward and then westward motion with a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next several days as the system gradually strengthens to a tropical storm Wednesday morning and then to hurricane strength Thursday morning. Very active weather is expected to persist across the south and southeast periphery of this system through Thursday. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the eastern Tropical Pacific this afternoon and evening and extends from the Gulf of Honduras to near 06N87W, moving W 10-15 kt. It appears that the southern part of the wave is helping to enhance deep convection occurring to the south of the monsoon trough as described above. Scattered strong convection is increasing over some sections of Costa Rica. The wave is forecast to move across the far eastern Pacific waters through the end of the week. Low pressure is expected to form along the wave. A tighter gradient behind the wave should is producing fresh winds across the Papagayo region. These winds should continue through the rest of this week, with some pulsing of them to moderate intensity expected at times. Active convection will continue to accompany this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09.5N74W TO 09N87W TO 14N102W, where it has fractured from Tropical Depression TWO-E, then resumes from 12N108W TO 07N121W. The ITCZ then continues to beyond 07N140W. Beyond the active convection near Tropical Depression TWO-E, scattered strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends east-southeastward from a large 1026 mb high pressure system centered north-northwest of Hawaii near 32N140W southeastward to near the Islas Revillagigedo. The typical low pressure trough will remain over the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California through Fri. This pressure pattern will generally support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Fri. Seas of 4-5 ft are forecast to gradually build to 5-7 ft Thu and 6-8 ft Thu night and Fri in the waters offshore northern Baja California due to a new set of NW swell forecast to propagate through those waters. Inside the Gulf of California, generally southerly wind flow is expected to continue through Thu. Afternoon and evening sea breezes are forecast to dominate the Gulf for the next few days and will freshen the winds to around 20 kt along the coasts each day. Variable light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night, then a brief episode of fresh to strong northerly winds will flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri as the cyclonic circulation associated with low pressure expected to form along a tropical wave described above begins to impact the waters downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala may resume venting some ash in the coming days, but remains relatively quite since the major eruption on Sunday. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will be prolonged through Fri as a tighter gradient behind a tropical wave, presently along 87.5W, keeps these winds mostly in the fresh range. The monsoon trough meanders across the forecast waters near 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds are generally forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Thu night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W through Fri. Model guidance indicates that these winds increase in coverage late Fri as the Special Features low pressure system tracks in a general northwesterly motion. The seas of up to 8 ft that were over the far western portion of the area last night and this morning south of 10N and west of 134W have subsided to less than 8 ft. Northerly swell producing seas to around 8 ft propagating through the NE waters N of 29N between 122W and 127W will gradually subside by early Wed afternoon. Long period SW swell crossing the Equator from the southern Hemisphere will cause seas near the Equator between 92W and 130W to build to 8 ft on Wed night. This area of 8 ft seas will continue to propagate northward and merge with the area of 8 ft seas associated with the area of developing low pressure to the southwest of Mexico by Fri evening. The area of 8 ft seas will expand to include almost all of the basin to the south of 23N between 100W and 130W during this time frame. $$ Stripling