000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1925 UTC Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres 1009 mb near 11N104W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded by 14N92W to 07N97W to 06N112W to 09N118W to 18N103W to 14N92W. A tropical wave extends N from the just S of the coast of Panama near 07N80W to over the Caribbean near 17N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within an area bounded by 08N77W to 02N79W to 08N90W to 10N84W to 08N77W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends SE from a large 1033 mb high pressure system centered N of Hawaii near 35N156W to near the Islas Revillagigedo. A low pressure trough will take up residence over the Baja Peninsula through Fri. This pressure pattern will generally support moderate to fresh northwest breezes west of the Baja Peninsula through Fri. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to remain variable at light to gentle speeds through Thu night. Active convection will slowly shift WNW across the area waters W of Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed night in tandem with a broad but developing area of low pressure currently centered SW of the Gulf along the monsoon trough near 11N104W. The developing low will move WNW during the next several days. This low retains a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days and a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A major eruption of the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala occurred Sunday, projecting ash well into the upper atmosphere which initially spread in all directions. However, the vast majority of the ash was steered by the wind flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere toward the NE and E away from the forecast waters. A small amount of ash may have been carried in low level ENE flow over the local offshore waters. However, emissions from the volcano have all but ceased during the past 12 hours. This should allow any ash over the waters adjacent to Guatemala to disperse. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night, with moderate nocturnal offshore breezes expected to resume on Tue night. The monsoon trough crosses the forecast waters near 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds are generally forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Thu night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W tonight. The area will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to the N shifts W. Northerly swell will propagate into the NE waters early Tue morning. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell will spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before beginning to disperse. Associated seas are expected to subside below 8 ft west of 121W by Wed night. Long period SW swell crossing the Equator from the Southern Hemisphere will cause seas near the Equator between 100W and 130W to build to 8 ft on Thu. This area of 8 ft seas will continue spreading N and merge with the area of 8 ft seas associated with the area of developing low pressure SW of Mexico by Fri evening. The area of 8 ft seas will expand to include almost all of the basin S of 23N between 100W and 130W during this time frame. $$ CAM