000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1958 UTC Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 09N84W to 11N102W to 
09N116W. The ITCZ continues from 09N116W to 06N127W to 07N136W to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 78W and 86W...within an area 
bounded by 13N91W to 06N94W to 09N115W to 18N104W to 13N91W and 
within 60 nm either side of a line from 06N127W and 10N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh 
northwest breezes west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. 
Winds will once again freshen west of the Baja Peninsula during 
the second half of the week in response to a low pressure trough 
developing over the Baja Peninsula.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds will affect the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W tonight as nocturnal
drainage flow augments the pressure gradient generated over the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec by modest high pressure over the gulf of 
Mexico.

Surface low pressure will gradually develop along the monsoon 
trough near 11N104W on Mon. The developing low will move WNW 
during the next several days. This low has a low probability of 
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days and a 
high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the
next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific 
Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 
KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The Fuego Volcano in Guatemala is erupting but the plume of ash 
from the eruption is expected to be steered northeastward away 
from the forecast waters during the next day or so. See the 
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion under WMO/AWIPS headers 
AXNT20 KNHC/MIATWDAT for additional information.

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast 
across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night,
with moderate nocturnal offshore breezes expected to resume on 
Tue night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N 
and 11N. Gentle to moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough through Wed. Gentle to moderate southwest 
winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Fri.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will 
gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 
to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south 
of the ridge, generally from 09N to 17N west of 125W tonight. The
area will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to 
the N shifts W.

Northerly swell will propagate into the NE waters early Tue 
morning. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell will 
spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before 
beginning to disperse. Associated seas are expected to subside 
below 8 ft west of 121W by Wed night.
  
$$
CAM