000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 30 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west off the Pacific coast of 
Colombia at 08N78W across the Gulf of Panama, and then continues 
northwest across interior Panama to along the Pacific coast of 
Costa Rica to 13N90W, then turns southwest to 08N120W where 
scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which 
continues west to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate and strong 
convection is noted within an area bounded by a line from 14N92W 
to 09N78W to 02N79W to 06N90W to 14N92W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is concentrated within 90 nm either side of a 
line from 10N95W to 10N107W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of lines 
from 10N110W to 06N122W, and from 07N127W to 07N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge continues across the 
East Pacific well beyond 250 nm seaward with the associated 
pressure gradient forecast to support a moderate northwest 
breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through Thu morning when 
moderate to locally fresh conditions will develop again on Thu 
evening, and then continue through Sat night. Northwest swell, 
in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive west of a line from 
32N118W to 27.5N119.5W today, and then subside to less than 8 ft 
on Thu night.  
   
Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly 
winds are forecast between 29.5N and 31N this evening into the 
late night hours tonight in association with a weak surface 
trough forecast to meander across the far northern gulf waters. 
Light and variable winds expected across the gulf waters south 
of 29.5N until late Thu when a moderate to fresh northwest 
breeze will begin across the waters south of 26N, with these 
conditions then spreading north to along 27.5N through late Fri 
night before beginning to subside.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable 
through the upcoming weekend.    
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is forecast to gradually shift southward as 
low pressure north of the area weakens.  This pattern will 
support light to gentle onshore winds during the daylight hours, 
and gentle to occasionally moderate offshore nocturnal flow, 
with 3 to 5 ft seas throughout.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N140W to 11N114W.
Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are 
observed across the tropics south of the ridge from 10N to 16N 
west of 134W. These conditions will gradually diminish through 
Thu, then redevelop again during the upcoming weekend.  

Fresh north winds, and long period N swell in the form of 8 to 
11 ft seas, is observed north of 24N between 120W and 140W.
These seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Fri. 
 
  
$$
Nelson