000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281549
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 24 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the coast of El 
Salvador to 13N90W to 10N100W to 09N125W where scatterometer 
winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to 
beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 
11N89W to 08N116W to 11N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge is analyzed well beyond 
250 nm with the associated pressure gradient forecast to support 
a fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through 
early Tue night followed by a moderate northwest breeze through 
Wed evening. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, 
will arrive at 30N120W on Wed night, but the quickly subside to 
less than 8 ft on Thu night.  
   
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds across the 
central and southern Gulf waters will diminish this evening. 
Light and variable winds are expected by early Tue, with little 
change through early Thu, except a fresh southwest breeze is 
forecast between 29.5N and 31N on Tue evening through early Wed 
and a fresh to locally strong southwest breeze is expected on 
Wed evening through sunrise Thu as a weak surface low develops 
briefly near 31N114W. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable 
during the next few days.    
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is gradually shifting southward as persistent 
elongated low pressure over Central America and the Yucatan 
peninsula weakens supporting light to gentle southwest to west 
winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N137W to 11N116W.
Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, are observed 
south of the ridge from 10N to 20N west of 125W.  These 
conditions will gradually diminish through Thu. 

Fresh to locally strong north winds, and long period N swell in 
the form of 8 to 10 ft seas, will arrive along 32N between 125W 
and 132W on Mon. The north swell will propagate south to along 
27N between 127W and 135W on Tue.  Although the winds will 
diminish to a moderate breeze on Thu, the associated seas will 
not subside to less than 8 ft until late Fri.    
  
$$
Nelson