000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama, and then across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 09N84W, then turns slightly northwest to 10N93W, then dips southwest to 09N105W, then continues west to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N82W, within 180 nm either side of a line from 09N88W to 15N97W, within 240 nm either side of a line from 05N96W to 08N115W to 12N120W to 08N135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast low level ridge will meander just beyond 250 nm seaward of northern and central Mexico for the next few days. Moderate northwest flow is observed west of 100W, and light to gentle northwest flow is observed east of 100W, with 4 to 7 ft seas throughout. Little change is forecast until Thu evening when a tightening pressure gradient will produce a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula. Locally strong conditions are forecast within about 60 nm of the west coast of Baja beginning on Fri night, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf of California on Thu and continue through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light southerly winds are expected through the upcoming weekend. Current seas of 4 to 7 ft should subside to 3 to 5 ft by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface high is centered near 27N76W with a ridge extending southeast to near 12N98W. The high will shift southeast allowing a cold front to reach a position from 32N132W to 28N140W this evening. The front will continue east eventually losing identity from 32N124W to 25N130W on Fri night into Sat. Although only fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front, northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri morning. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low develops along the ITCZ near 10N132W on Thu resulting in fresh to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as seas build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually dissipate near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson