000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230852
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
847 UTC Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west from 12N88W to 08N105W to 
09N138W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either 
side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge will meander beyond 250 nm seaward of northern 
and central Mexico for the next few days. Moderate northwest flow
will prevail west of 100W, and light to gentle northwest flow is 
east of 100W. An area of 5 to 7 ft seas currently noted east of 
115W. Little change in the forecast is expected through Thu 
afternoon, when a tightening pressure gradient will produce a 
moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja 
Peninsula. Locally strong conditions are forecast near 26N113W on
Fri night.
  
Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is 
expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate 
northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf 
of California on Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected 
this week.     
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Mixed swell resulting in 5 to 7 ft seas currently across the 
offshore waters near 09N90W. Elsewhere, light SW winds are 
expected for the next several days to the south of 10N with 3 to 
5 ft seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface high is centered near 36N163W with a ridge extending 
southeast to near 14N110W. Little change to the moderate trades 
currently observed south of the ridge through Thu, with seas 
ranging between 4 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient is forecast to 
tighten as a surface low develops along the ITCZ near 10N132W 
late this week resulting in fresh to possibly strong trades 
within 480 nm north of low with seas building to 8 ft.

Further north...the surface high will dissipate as the ridge 
shifts south today allowing a cold front to reach along a 
position from 32N137W to 30N142W overnight. The front will 
continue east eventually losing identity from 32N126W 24N128W on 
Thu night into Fri. Although only fresh winds northerly winds are
forecast west of the front, northwest swell will maintain an 
area of 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters from 29N to 32N through 
Fri morning. 
   
$$

ERA