000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172143
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N95W to 09N111W 
to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N121W to 06N131W. The ITCZ begins 
near 06N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough 
between 82W and 115W, and within 210 nm northwest quadrant of 
low pressure. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 
180 nm north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are off Baja California 
between a 1025 mb high pressure centered west of the area and 
lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Seas in this region are 
from 5 to 7 ft. A middle to upper level trough is moving into 
southern California Fri and Sat clipping Baja California Norte 
and the northern Gulf of California, thus supporting the 
development of fresh to locally strong NW winds at night today 
and Fri. Moderate northwesterly winds will persist off the coast 
of Baja California thereafter through Tue. However, seas are 
forecast to build to 8 ft in long period SW swell off Baja 
California Norte Mon morning through Tue morning.  

For the Gulf of California, fresh to strong westerly gap winds 
will pulse over the northern Gulf of California tonight in the 
wake of a weak trough moving across the region. Variable light 
to gentle winds with seas to 4 ft will dominate elsewhere 
through Tue.

Weak northerly flow with seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell is along the 
remainder of the coast of Mexico. Seas forecast to increase to 8 
ft Mon morning and subsiding Tue. 
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf 
the entire forecast period as weak pressure will prevail across 
Central America. Seas of 4-7 ft are forecast over the Gulf and 
nearby waters through Tue.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast 
through Tue with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, 
building to 5-7 ft on Mon as the swell reaches the coasts of 
Panama and Colombia. Expect big waves along those coasts.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south 
of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north 
of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central 
America. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft in long period SW 
swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight, 
continuing through the weekend. Wave mode guidance indicates 
that these seas will build to 8 ft Sun night and will subside on 
Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high is centered near 31N135W, with a ridge axis 
extending southeastward to Baja California Sur offshore waters. 
In the tropics, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the 
monsoon trough near 10N121W with scattered heavy showers and 
thunderstorms are within 240 nm of northwest semicircle of low 
pressure. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted north of 
the monsoon trough between 120W and 132W. Latest scatterometer 
data show fresh northeasterly winds within 400 nm north of the 
ITCZ west of 135W associated with an area of scattered heavy 
showers. Otherwise, seas of 7-8 ft in a new group of SW swell 
are reaching the equator between the Galapagos and 120W. 

$$
Ramos