000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 07N78W to 07N90W to 10N100W to low pressure near 11N113W 1009 mb to low pressure near 14N130W 1012 mb to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 07N east of 79W to along the coast of Colombia. Similar activity also exists from 07N to 10N between 112W and 115W, and within 120 nm north of the axis between 110W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 105W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep low pressure over the southwestern United States and northwest Mexico is creating a tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. S to SW winds of 20 to 30 kt, with seas to near 8 ft will continue there till around mid-morning. Afterwards, expect moderate to fresh winds through Sun night, with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are present over the rest of he gulf, with moderate to locally fresh winds around Los Cabos in southern Baja California. These conditions are expected to change little through the early part of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California with seas of 6 to 8 ft in long period NW swell. As the swell decays, these seas will then lower to 5 to 7 ft by Sun evening. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through Sun, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period southerly swell. Winds will briefly become NW-N at moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon before becoming moderate south to southwest during Mon afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun afternoon, then become variable gentle to moderate winds. Seas are forecast to be in the 4 to 6 ft range through early next week. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long period southerly swell through Mon before subsiding slightly Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure, centered well north of the area near 47N135W, southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure, remnants of recent Tropical Depression One-E, is located near 14N130W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The small cyclonic circulation of the low is clearly exposed, and will becomes ill-defined with time. Latest satellite imagery shows a weakening isolated thunderstorm well to the northeast of the circulation near 14N128W. The low is forecast to open up to a trough Mon afternoon. Northwest swell producing seas with peak values of up 12 ft upstream of 32N, will continue to propagate south-southeastward to the south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by early Sun afternoon before decaying below 8 ft by Sun night. Seas of 8 ft south of the monsoon trough to the south of the equator between 97W and 102W are the result of fresh southwest flow and cross- equatorial SW swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft by early on Mon. As previously mentioned, a 1009 mb low is embedded within the monsoon through near 11N113W, with associated convection as described above under the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. A diffluent pattern aloft to the east of a broad upper trough, that is located between 115W and 124W and north of 12N, is helping to support the aforementioned convective activity. In addition, this activity is under broad anticyclonic flow that may help to sustain this convection for a while. According to global models, the low should persist over the next 48 to 72 hours as it tracks in a general westward direction. $$ Aguirre