000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 09 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 
mb surface low near 11N124W. Convection has further decreased 
during the last couple of hours and looks rather disorganized. A 
blend of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low 
near 12.7N126W on Thu afternoon with near gale force winds 
within 165 nm north semicircle of the low. The disturbance is 
forecast to continue a northwestward trajectory into a ridge, 
which will further tighten the pressure gradient, thus leading 
to the development of gale force winds on Friday afternoon. The 
ridge will lift northward early on Sat and winds are expected to 
decrease below gale force. Even though, it appears that the 
disturbance is already reaching an unfavorable environment, and 
the chances of tropical cyclone formation have diminished, a 
tropical depression could still form tonight or Friday. Please 
see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook under 
AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of 
Panama at 08N78W to 04N90W to 10N107W through a surface low near 
11N124W to 08N126W. The ITCZ begins near 08N126W and continues 
to 08N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 04N to 08N east of 90W, from 02N to 05N between 
90W and 95W, from 10N to 14N between 96W and 106W, and from 07N 
to 11N between 108W and 113W.  
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander about 300 nm seaward 
of northern Mexico the remainder of the week. Fresh northwest 
flow, and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 29N west of the Baja Peninsula 
will gradually increase as the pressure gradient tightens with 
locally strong winds forecast tonight through early Fri. The 
associated northerly swell will propagate as far south as 26N on 
Thu before beginning to subside from the south on Friday. 
     
Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwesterly flow is 
forecast to develop north of 30N on Fri afternoon, continuing 
into early Mon. Seas will build to 8 ft during that forecast 
period.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: No gap winds event forecast through early 
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh winds will resume 
early Sat morning continuing through Sunday. 
  
Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is 
forecast through this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
Refer to special features section for a warning associated with 
a tropical low pressure near 11N124W.

Long period northwest swell in the form of 8 ft seas from 22N to 
27N west of 128W will subside to less than 8 ft Thu evening. 

Seas to 9 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally north 
of 23N east of 135W through late Sun.
   
$$
Ramos