000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 08 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A persistent broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1011 mb surface low at 10N119W. Environmental conditions are favorable for slow development over the next few days as the low moves moves northwestward. A blend of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low near 11N121W this evening accompanied by strong to near gale force winds. The forecast is for gale force conditions to develop within 90 nm over the northwest quadrant of the low near 12N122W on Wed morning. Gale conditions should continue through Fri when environmental conditions will become less favorable. This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west-southwest from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N94W to 10N102W to 11N115W through an embedded surface low at 10N119W to 06N129W. The ITCZ develops near 06N131W and continues west to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 07N east of 98W and from 10N to 15N between 96W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge centered near 30N128W will dissipate tonight while a weak tropical low develops well southwest of the Mexican offshore waters later this week. A tightening pressure gradient between a newly developed ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California will increase the northwest flow west of Baja Norte to a fresh breeze tonight through early Friday. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft during that period. The associated northerly swell will propagate as far south as 26N on Thu before beginning to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast through the middle of the week, except moderate nocturnal drainage flow expected near gap areas. Guidance is suggesting fresh to strong southwesterly flow developing north of 30N on Fri and continuing into Sat night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow will continue through early this afternoon with the gap event ending by Wed morning with winds diminished to 20 kt or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected through tonight, followed by moderate nocturnal flow on Wed night. Light to gentle nocturnal flow is then expected on Thu night with moderate flow on Fri night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to special features section for a warning associated with a tropical low pressure developing near 10N119W. A weakening cold front extending southwest from 30N134W to 25N140W will weaken to a frontal trough from 30N129W to 23N140W early Wed, and then dissipate by late Wed. Long period northwest swell in the form of 8 to 13 ft seas is expected west of the front today. These large seas will quickly subside to 8 to 9 ft west of the frontal trough Wed morning, and further subside to less than 8 ft Wed night. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally north of 24N east of 124W late in the week. $$ Ramos