000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040255
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 04 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of 
Panama at 09N83W to 06N100W, then turns northwest to an embedded 
surface trough at 10N120W. Scatterometer winds indicate that an 
ITCZ develops at 10N114W and extends west to another surface 
trough at 12N124W, then resumes from 10N127W to 09N140W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed with a large 
area bounded by 17N106W to 15N95W to 09N78W to 04N135W to 
10N135W to 17N106W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to 
14N100W for the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh 
northwest flow will continue within 60 nm of the west coast of 
the Baja Peninsula during the evenings for the next few days 
while mostly gentle flow is forecast elsewhere west of Baja.
Guidance is suggesting locally strong northwest flow between 
30N and 32N along Baja Norte on Sat night.   

Gulf of California:  Moderate to locally fresh northwest flow 
expected through Fri evening when a tightening pressure gradient 
will produce brief strong winds across the southern Gulf of 
California. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong event is forecast late Fri 
night with the northerly drainage flow forecast to increase to 
near gale force on Sat night and continue through late Mon when 
minimal gale conditions are expected to begin and persist 
through Mon night with seas building to 12 ft downstream near 
14.5N 95.5W.    

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal winds are expected for the 
next several nights.  
  
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly nocturnal flow is
forecast overnight followed by gentle to moderate southwest flow. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A ridge extending from 32N132W to beyond 28N140W will shift 
southeast as a cold front sweeps east across the discussion 
waters from 30N to 32N west of 136W on Fri afternoon and 
accompanied by strong southerly winds and seas to 8 ft. The cold 
front will stall from 32N136W to 28N140W on Sat, and dissipate 
by Sun as a ridge redevelops from 32N128W to 23N140W. Southerly 
flow will increase north of this ridge on Sun ahead of another 
cold front that will reach from 32N137W to 28N140W early Mon 
accompanied by strong southerly flow that will extend south to 
along 28N, with large seas of 10 to 15 ft west of the front. The 
front will lose identity on Tue, but seas of 6 to 9 ft are 
forcast west of a line 32N125W to 13n140W. 

        


 
   
$$
Nelson