000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1434 UTC Wed May 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 08N93W to 10N104W to 09N112W. The ITCZ axis continues westward from 09N112W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 90W and 98W, and from 10N to 14N between 99W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 101W and 105W, from 09N to 12N between 107W and 115W, and from 05N to 08N W of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over the US Great Basin is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds W of the Baja peninsula. These winds will gradually diminish through tonight as the high shifts southward and weakens. Seas of 6-7 ft in this area will slowly subside to 5-6 ft on Thursday. Gulf of California: As of 1200 UTC, a cold front extends from southern Arizona across the central Gulf of California near 20N112W to near 25N116W. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds in the northern Gulf and seas of 6-7 ft will become 15 to 20 kt and 4-6 ft by this afternoon. A brief surge of fresh NW winds is forecast along the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico mainly from 22N-25N, and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes on Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next episode of strong northerly winds is possible Sat night through Sun night as building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico induces a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE drainage flow will develop again overnight, and continue to pulse nocturnally at 20-25 kt through Thu. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate nocturnal flow is forecast through Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends a ridge southeastward across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast trades and seas of 8-10 ft from 08N to 14N W of 130W. These winds and seas are forecast to dimimish below advisory criteria over the next 12-24 hours. A pronounced jet stream is transporting abundant deep layer moisture from the tropics northeastward into central Mexico, producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This deep moisture pattern will change little through Friday. $$ GR