000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 07N78W to 06N87W to 06N98W. The ITCZ axis begins near 14N101W and continues along 10N110W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm either side of the trough east of 94W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 101W and 122W. Numerous moderate convection is on the western end of the ITCZ from 02N to 07N between 126W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast oriented high pressure ridge, anchored by strong high pressure well north of the area, will prevail through the entire forecast period. A slightly tight pressure gradient between the ridge and broad low pressure over the western United States will continue to support fresh northwest winds across the open waters N of 26N west of the Baja Peninsula. Winds will diminish to a moderate NW to N breeze on Wed night as the strong high pressure north of the area shifts southward and weakens. Current maximum seas of 8 ft in northwest swell within the area of fresh northwest winds will subside to less than 8 ft late Wed night. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwest winds developed again tonight from 29N to 31N and are forecast to increase to near gale force early on Tue as the low pressure over the western United States deepens. Model guidance suggests that these winds then slowly diminish to strong intensity Wed and become variable of gentle to moderate intensity by Wed night. Expect seas to build to 8 ft Tue, and subside to less than 8 ft Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next event of strong northerly winds is expected beyond the forecast period near 12Z on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong drainage flow is forecast to start early this morning and continue through beyond the next couple of days. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to mainly moderate nocturnal flow is forecast for the next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue north of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds remain south of the trough axis. Seas are forecast to be generally in the 4 to 6 ft range, except slightly higher offshore Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and strong surface ridge, anchored by a nearly stationary 1034 mb high centered well north of the area extends southeastward across the forecast waters. Fresh trades along with 7 to 8 ft seas will prevail between the ridge and the ITCZ through early Thu. $$ Ramos