000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 928 UTC Sun Apr 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N95W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N95W to beyond 08N110W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 90W and 105W, and from 05N to 10N between 110W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A mid to upper trough will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California through late today. A generally zonal pattern aloft in the wake of the trough will allow the pressure gradient to relax, and fresh to strong surface winds off the coast of Baja California Norte to diminish through late Mon. Lingering 8 to 9 ft NW swell will gradually decay to at or below 8 ft off Baja California Norte through late Tue. Ridging will build eastward through mid week, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh NW flow and 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters north of 20N through the remainder of the the period. For the Gulf of California, a second, sharper mid/upper trough will amplify as it reaches a position from the central Rockies to off Baja California Norte through mid week. Strong SW low to mid level winds ahead of the trough will support pulses of strong gap winds over the northern Gulf of California along 30N, mainly at night with the help of overnight drainage effects. The gap winds may reach as high as 30 kt by late Tue night. Gap wind pulses will taper off through mid week as the supporting upper trough broadens and the associated stronger SW winds aloft shift eastward. Farther south, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a lingering tight gradient will allow fresh to strong northerly winds through and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and persist till around sunrise. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow and 3 to 5 ft seas persist. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh northeast nocturnal winds are expected though Sun night, with fresh to locally strong nocturnal drainage flow then forecast to resume on Mon night. Gulf of Panama: Gentle nocturnal flow is forecast for the next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through Mon, accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extending north of 20N will persist through mid week. Fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas will continue between the ridge and the ITCZ through Mon night, then moderate trades are forecast during the remainder of next week. $$ Christensen