000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Apr 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 07N98W where scatterometer winds indicate that an ITCZ develops and continues west to 09N118W to 07N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 07N78W to 06N95W, and within 210 nm either side of a line from 04N104W to 11N119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to 12N94W for the next several days. The pressure gradient is tightening and expect moderate to fresh northwest flow within about 60 nm of the west coast of the central Baja Peninsula this evening and on Wed and Thu evenings, then fresh to locally strong northwest flow expected west of the Baja Peninsula beginning late Thu night, and then persisting through the weekend. Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds are forecast through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal flow will continue this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal winds expected tonight, with seas building to as high as 7 ft downstream near 11N88W. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow expected to resume on Wed night and persist into the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Panama: Gentle nocturnal flow forecast this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail generally N of 09N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front from 32N132W to 27N140W will continue east and dissipate on Wed. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, accompanies the front, but is forecast to gradually subside through Wed. A ridge will then rebuild from 27N140W to 12N94W on Wed, and then shift slightly north on Thu and Fri. Fresh northeast trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are observed across the tropical waters south of the ridge and north of the the ITCZ, with little change forecast through the remainder of this week. Southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed between the equator and 03.4S will gradually subside through late Wed night. $$ Nelson