000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102052
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 05N95W to 04N103W
to 07N109W to 08N114W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N114W to 
08N121W to 09N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 210 nm to the south of the axis 
between 84W-90W, and also within 150 nm south of the axis
between 83W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm 
south of the axis between 111W-113W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell that recently was offshore Baja California subsided to 
below 8 ft today. Another round of strong NW winds and large NW 
swell are expected starting Thu as strong high pressure builds 
southeastward across these waters. Farther south, fresh to strong
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight. 
Strong winds are possible across the length of the Gulf of 
California as high pressure builds over the Great Basin Fri night
into Sat. 

Model guidance suggests that the next gale force gap wind for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is probable to begin early on Sun and into 
early next week. The latest model guidance indicates that it may
be of the strong gale force intensity.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds are expected during the forecast period. 
Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range will prevail, except south of 05N 
where southerly swell will maintain seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh gap 
winds are possible in the Gulf of Papagayo by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 28N129W is 
producing mainly gentle to moderate trades north of the ITCZ to 
20N. The 1021 mb high pressure is forecast to be replaced by much
stronger high pressure from the northwest on Thu as indicated by
the global models. The resulting tighter gradient will enable 
for these trades to increase to the fresh to strong intensity 
along with seas maxing out to around 10 or 11 ft. As the high 
pressure weakens late on Fri, the gradient will relax enough to 
allow for the fresh to strong trades to diminish to mainly fresh 
NE to E winds. Light to gentle winds continue elsewhere across 
much of the forecast waters N of 20N, except west of a cold front
that as of 18Z is along a position from 32N129W to 27N135W and 
dissipating stationary front from there to 25N140W, where 
moderate N-NE winds prevail. Though winds associated to this 
front will remain below 25 kt, the front has ushered in a set of 
NW swell. The swell will propagate southeastward the next several
days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering the waters north of a
line from Baja California Norte to 08N140W by Thu. A second 
batch of NW swell will move into the northern waters Thu night 
into Fri, bringing seas to near 13 ft over the waters north of 
20N and west of 120W. Yet another NW swell will move into the NW 
waters Sat, with seas possibly reaching to near 13 ft over the 
far NW waters.

$$
Aguirre