000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282108 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N81W to 06N90W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N90W to 04N100W to 05N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 122W and 128W. Similar convection is also from 03N to 06N between 128W and 132W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 132W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1036 mb located well N of area near 42N133W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will continue to support fresh to locally strong NW winds across the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance of the Gulf through this evening. The pressure gradient will relax tonight, allowing for winds to diminish slightly. On Thu, expect mainly moderate to fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf of California, with light and variable winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas subsiding to 4-7 ft on Thu, and to 3-6 ft on Fri. Similar marine conditions are expected during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in long period SW swell will prevail through Fri. Then, high pressure building N of the region will induce a gap wind event beginning late Fri, with minimal gale conditions possible Fri night through Sat night. Based on marine guidance, seas are forecast to build to 12 to 14 ft with this gap wind event by Sat morning. Conditions will improve through the day Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal winds are expected this week and into the weekend, with seas building to as high as 8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Winds will then be moderate to fresh for Sun. Gulf of Panama: Pulsing N winds in the 20-25 kt range are expected again across the western part of the Gulf tonight. Then, moderate to fresh N winds will prevail through Fri, slightly weaker thereafter. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow is expected generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1036 mb located well N of area near 42N133W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an are of fresh to strong trades from 08N to 30N W of 130W, with seas of 8-11 ft based on altimeter data. The gale center, previously located W of the area, has weakened and opened up into a trough. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is still producing fresh to locally strong E-SE winds across the forecast waters N of 20N W of 138W, with seas of up to 10 ft according to a couple of altimeter passes. Marine conditions will gradually improve during the next couple of days, with winds 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft, across most of the forecast region by Fri. Outside of the the gap wind regions, expect winds of 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft during the upcoming weekend. $$ GR